It seems as if there is a chance, a possibility that cooler heads will prevail and there will be no U.S. strike on Syria. Of course, that’s not actually peace, because it doesn’t end the Civil War, but it doesn’t start World War III, either.
It doesn’t matter if John Kerry was merely thinking out loud, as Andrew Sullivan suggested. He made an offer (although he’s kind of trying to weasel out of it now, which would be a big mistake) and Putin and Bashar al-Assad have both seized on it.
The deal, as I understand it, is this: Assad will sign all the international agreements against chemical weapons and, even though he still says he never used them, promise to never use them again and allow all those chemical weapons he claims to not have to be destroyed. In agreement, the U.S. will agree not to bomb Syria, which something like 90% of the American people really didn’t want to do anyway.
It’s a pretty good deal. It’s certainly the best we’re going to get. The only thing missing is the desire, on the part of the U.S., to see Assad “punished.” Assad is not going to agree to that. If those were the terms, no conflicts would ever be avoided, no wars would ever be ended except by the total annihilation of one side or the other.
Also, even though accepting this deal will not end the Civil War in Syria, it might be a step in that direction. If we can get agreement between Obama, Assad, and Putin on this, then maybe we can get agreement between Obama, Assad, Putin and the leaders of a couple of the key rebel groups, at least to sit down and talk.
It might also set a precedent for the next time something like this happens, (as it will) and negotiation and compromise will be considered as a first option, and not a last option.
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