First of all, let me admit that I’m not an expert on Ukraine. Unfortunately, I’ve never been there. I know that, as a Slavic nation, they have incredibly beautiful women and the favorite national pastime is probably getting blind drunk. Due to their location, I would guess the beverages of choice are vodka and beer. But, if my guesses as to their political situation are naive, I would be glad to hear from people who live there, or have some personal stake in what’s happening.
Inside the Former President’s House
At least, it seems, Ukraine is getting a bit of a break. Yulia Tymoshenko, the cute lady with the funny braids, has been released from prison. Viktor Yanukovych, the President, has resigned and his current whereabouts are unknown. As the general public got an unexpected view of his mansion, the rumors that he was massively corrupt were confirmed. It is the Hearst Castle of the Steppe, apparently. An interim government, headed by Oleksandr Turchynov, has promised new elections by May 25th.
So, they are about where Egypt was, after the first wave of rioting led to Mubarak’s ouster and imprisonment. Unfortunately, like Egypt, their problems remain. There is still a cultural, economic, social and linguistic division between the Euro-leaning West and the Russian leaning East. The May election is likely to re-emphasize that and, no matter how many recounts are done, one side or the other is going to be deeply disappointed with the results.
That is the one thing all Americans and Europeans (and Russians) would do well to remember. There are two sides to this story. Sure, that video of the beautiful and brave Ukrainian girl appealing to the world for help was powerful, but both sides can play that game. Both sides aren’t likely to get the same coverage in the Western press, of course, but both sides can play that game.
I saw this quote today from Susan Rice, Barack Obama’s security advisor: “It’s not in the interests of Ukraine or of Russia or of Europe or the United States to see a country split.”
I beg to differ. It’s not in anybody’s interest to see a violent split, a rupture, a civil war. But an amicable split, a no fault divorce, like that between The Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993, would be to Russia’s benefit, because they’d find a friend and an ally on their southern border, it would be to the benefit of both the newly formed East Ukraine, and the newly formed West Ukraine, because not so many people would get killed, and they could keep an open border between them, because lots of people have friends and family on both sides. It would be advantageous to the EU, because West Ukraine would probably be a better EU candidate than all of Ukraine.
Like I said, though, I’m no expert. If anybody can explain to me why this wouldn’t work, I’d be glad to hear it.
www.gurukalehuru.com 