The End of the World as We Know It

A study from NASA, which has nothing to do with space, has predicted that unless we do something really drastic, like a massive redistribution of income, and/or seriously strict environmental regulations, civilization will collapse within a few decades, a century or two at most.  I’ve got a few things to say about this.

First, I’m a bit surprised because it seems a little bit outside of NASA’s jurisdiction.  Not that I object.  It’s basically a computer type study, so it probably didn’t cost much, and I’m glad somebody’s doing studies like this.

Also, it’s a little bit harder to dismiss a report from NASA than it is a report from some religious wackjob who’s used the Bible as a literal reference work to calculate the days since Noah’s flood, or some Mayan legend that even actual Mayan’s didn’t believe in.  NASA puts people into space and brings them back, alive.  They are no slouches.

However, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say I do not think civilization is going to collapse.  Not completely, anyway.   Sure, there are dozens of possible real bad scenarios: death of the honeybees, nuclear disaster, Monsanto destroying our biodiversity, leading to pretty much the same result as the extinction of the honeybees, global warming, fracking poisoning all the world’s water, acid rain, a pandemic, a meteor strike.

But a lot depends on what you call civilization, and what you consider collapse.  Rome collapsed.  In some ways, it was a step backward for mankind but in some ways it was a step forward.  It enabled everything that followed.

Certainly, as the report indicated, the rich are likely to continue hogging all the wealth, and this will lead to one of two scenarios.   First, there will be widespread famine.  People will react to that in one of two ways.  They will succumb quietly, or they will kill all the rich people.   If there is a lot of succumbing quietly, the population will eventually drop to a level where it will be sustainable again, just by small scale agriculture, and hunting and trapping and scavenging.  Out of 7 billion people, if only 1% survive, that is 70 million survivors.  Among that number, there will undoubtedly be some who are capable of building water wheels and generators, planning drainage and irrigation systems, and forging metal.  O.K., civilization may collapse, but it will recover.

Alternatively, people might decide they prefer to exterminate the rich,  which would allow for many more people to survive, and civilization to more quickly regenerate.

If civilization collapses to the point where industry stops, the rivers will flush themselves of all pollutants within days (if the soil is not too polluted), the sky will clear after a few good rains, and things will start over again.

Of course, if we are smart, we could take the needed steps now to solve the problems, and avoid the collapse entirely.  Ban pesticides, start building massive wind and solar generating facilities, replace all the roads with railroads, tax the rich instead of the poor, and give everybody a free college education, because the more smart people we have, the better off we’ll be.

It doesn’t look like we’re smart enough, though.  So, maybe we’re doomed, after all.