July 24th, 2010

My Bonnie Lies Over the Ocean

Hurricane season is coming up.  Bonnie is right now tearing up Florida.  Well, actually I think it’s been downgraded to a tropical storm and Florida goes through those all the time.  A bit of heavy rain doesn’t faze them.  This storm is significant, though, for what it will tell us.  If you were wondering what effect the oil spill on the Gulf is going to have on hurricanes, we will get our answer between now and about October or November, but starting now.

I’m going to go a bit counter-intuitive, since I am at heart a green and by natural tendency a bit of an alarmist, but I think there is a weird and ironic possibility that this is going to be the silver cloud, the one decent thing, the lucky break.  Oil and water don’t mix, and you’ve got a lot of oil laying on the surface, and maybe it’s acting like kind of a blanket, so not as much water gets sucked up into the storm.  If I’m right, it won’t be a particularly bad year for hurricanes.  The damage to the shoreline from the spill itself will still be tremendous, already is, but maybe we’ll get a break on the hurricanes.

Two disclaimers:  1st, I’m not a scientist, so I don’t really know what I’m talking about.  2nd, don’t get the idea for one second that I’m apologizing for BP, or arguing for offshore drilling, or anything like that.

I’m just saying that this could be, and I hope that it is.

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