I’ve read several “pundits” saying that the Republican field will narrow after the Iowa precinct caucuses. Who appoints these people as “pundits,”anyway. Is there a university of punditry? An official board of certification? I don’t think so. Also, I have noticed that they are frequently wrong. Which is not surprising at all when one says one thing and one another, there is virtually a 100% chance that one or the other of them will be mistaken. What’s
If he even gets 2% in Iowa, he's in the race
amazing is how often they’re wrong en masse.
So, just to be contrarian, I will predict that the field will not narrow, but widen after Iowa.
First, Paul will win. Romney, Gingrich, Perry, Santorum and Bachmann will all do well enough to justify staying in the race. Maybe not Bachmann, but she’s crazy as a loon and if God tells her to keep running, she’s staying in. Buddy Roemer might pick up a delegate or two. If Romney does not place second, he’s in trouble. At the very least, New Hampshire becomes a must win, and it’s no longer a sure thing.
Sure, Romney’s picking up all the big endorsements. Nikki Haley, the Des Moines Register, Dan Quayle, Christine O’Donnell. Good for him. That and a few million dollars might keep him in the race for a few more weeks. But the Tea Party hates him, and they are a big voting bloc whenever and wherever Republicans vote.
So, it’s a race with room for at least 3 front runners. Paul, Romney and the anti-Romney who is not Ron Paul. Don’t ask me why Republicans think like that, but they do.
Vying for the non-Paul anti-Romney slot will be Perry, Bachmann, Santorum and Gingrich. There’s no reason for any of them to drop out. If it’s going to be a brokered convention, all they need to do is be there with a handful of delegates and they could walk away with the big prize. As I mentioned earlier, Buddy Roemer may be in the mix by that point. With a race that wide open, others may make a late entry, because there’s no rule says they can’t. Palin. Trump. Giuliani. If old ferret face smells blood, he could well jump into the fray.
So, those are my predictions. In print. So if I’m totally wrong, feel free to hurl mockery and abuse in the comments section on January 4th.
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