There has been lots of talk lately about whether it will be good for Obama or bad for Obama if the Supreme Court votes against Obamacare or if they don’t, with plenty of convoluted arguments in all directions, so I might as well weigh in now, as I’m sure my opinion will be no wronger than most.
I was reading of a right wing pundit today who made the argument that it would be bad news for Obama either way, and I’d like to take exactly the opposite side, for argument’s sake.
I’m just talking horse race here. (In real life, an anti-health care decision would be a disaster; people could die.)
Contrary to Republican screaming, I think most Americans like the idea of affordable health care. They like things that are affordable, that’s a no-brainer. Health is a good thing also, and most people care about it a little bit. Most Americans don’t even object to Michelle Obama having a vegetable garden or leading fat kids in jumping jacks.
So, if the Supreme Court strikes it down, it will become a rallying cry for Democrats: we need some new members on the Supreme Court. So, vote for Obama and hope against hope that one of those old farts, preferably Scalia or Thomas, steps down to “spend more time with their family” at some point in the next 4 years. Also, if they strike it down and, forgive me for saying this, people die between now and November as a direct result, Republicans will clearly be seen as murdering poor little kids, or a busload of senior citizens whose bus broke down on the way to Canada.
If the Supreme Court upholds the bill, it’s a clear win for Obama because he looks like an effective leader. Which he is. It’s the Republicans who are crappy followers.
I predict the Supreme Court will vote against health care, though, because they are, by a margin of 5 to 4, Republican shitheads. The only reason they would vote to uphold the bill would be that a negative vote would be too blatant, too obviously partisan and political, too unjustifiable. It would prove to everybody that they are strictly a partisan court, leaning to the right. And, as they proved in 2000, and have proved several times since then, they couldn’t care less what people think.
