Tonight’s column is pure political speculation. I am nothing but happy that Mitt Romney’s campaign is falling apart like toilet paper in the rain.
Nothing to do with the story. I just like this picture of Obama and his Mama.
Second disclaimer: Even though I read about American politics non-stop, and blog about it more days than not, I’m not living in the U.S. so I haven’t seen many of the ads and I don’t know whether or not those of you in swing states are totally being inundated with Romney ads about now.
Seems to me, though, I haven’t heard much lately about Mitt Romney’s vaunted billion dollar war chest and this massive negative ad bomb campaign we’ve been expecting is not materializing. I don’t know why. Were Adelson and the Koch Brothers just bluffing? Have they decided, after some reflection, that maybe financing Romney would be throwing away money? Perhaps the RNC has decided to spend the money on down-ticket races – if so, they’re starting a little late on that, too. Perhaps they’re trying the Giuliani gambit – remember how he thought he’d sit out the early primaries in 2008, betting it all on a late entry in Florida, but by the time Florida rolled around everybody had pretty much forgotten he was running. That’s where I see Romney now. By November, most people will have just written him off.
So, I see no October surprise there. If they do pull off a massive ad bomb I won’t be surprised. If they don’t, I won’t be surprised.
There won’t be any surprises during the debates. Mitt will either give calm, reasonable sounding performances or he will flop entirely. Barry will either give calm, reasonable performances or inspiring , uplifting orations that shoot electricity into the air and sweep the masses off their feet. In any event Fox News, and probably CNN, will declare them a tie. This is predictable, based on everybody’s previous performances.
Will there be a true surprise, like a war with Iran? No. Barry don’t play that game. Even if Nathan Yahoo does pull off an Osirak type raid, Obama will just “issue a sternly worded condemnation,” because that’s what he does and I’m really glad of it, and everybody will go back to talking about something else in a few days. Americans really aren’t too interested in any country we’re not actually at war with.
So, I don’t think there will be any big October surprise in this election. But, I could be surprised.
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