Actually, what he predicted was that the New England Patriots would play the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl, which is still a pretty bold prediction as there are several teams still in contention. There were quite a few things he said in the video that led me to believe that he thinks the Pats will take it all, but he never specifically said that.
Maybe if elections were decided like this, people would be more interested
I suppose I’m rooting for the Seahawks as I’ve got family in the Seattle area but, really, I couldn’t care less about American football or who wins the top prize. I’m much more interested in Nate Silver’s prediction, what that says about the science of prediction and, by extension, predetermination vs. free will. If Nate Silver is as good as many on the political left think he is (because he correctly predicted the outcome of 50 out of 50 states in the last election, and called almost all of the Senate races correctly, too), then the Patriots have already won and there’s no point playing out the rest of the season. Just give them their rings and everybody can go home.
I don’t think it’s possible that he’s that good. (He, himself, isn’t claiming that he’s that good. He’s actually a fairly modest guy. The idea that he has some kind of powers of precognition is strictly a public perception.) I think that sports depends a lot more on chance and random factors than politics does.
But, I made that point in the comments section over at Huffpo and, instantly, a half dozen people or more leaped to Nate Silver’s defense. The line that set them off, I think, was where I said “he’s out of his league.” They all pointed out to me that before he got into politics he was, indeed, a sports statistician, specializing in baseball. I hadn’t known that, so it was good that they set me straight.
I do not get that kind of response when I make a comment about politics, or the economy, or the environment, or guns, or marijuana, or even my theory that 9/11 was engineered by a cabal headed by Dick Cheney, Marvin Bush (the president’s brother), and Larry Silverstein (owner of the World Trade Center).
What is it about sports that gets people so riled up, so passionate, so committed, so involved? Really, I don’t understand it. If anybody has any theories, I’d love to hear about them in the comments.
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