I have just been defriended by an Australian lady on facebook, for making disparaging remarks about their national cuisine. I’m sure Australia’s a lovely country. Great beaches. Cute little Koala Bears. Kangaroos.
But Vegemite really does suck. Sorry.
Anyway, that’s not my blog topic for this evening. There seem to be two main schools of thought
You all know what Mitt Romney looks like. Here's a picture of New Hampshire.
in analyzing the results of the New Hampshire primary. First, it’s a big Romney win. He won in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s pretty much got a lock on the nomination. He’s got the momentum, he’s got the money, the ABR* crowd is splintered, that’s it, it’s all over but the shouting.
The other view is that Romney is toast. He only won Iowa by 8 votes (that’s 0 percentage points) and he didn’t get over 40% in New Hampshire, where they supposedly love the guy. This is despite spending massive amounts of money.
I tend toward the second view, but I’m not so sure as I was a couple of weeks ago. 39 percent is not 40%, but it’s still 17 points more than Ron Paul got, and Rick Santorum really didn’t do very well at all. If Romney wins in South Carolina and Florida, he might very well win the nomination.
But here’s the rub: a Republican candidate needs 1144 delegates to get the nomination. 37 have been chosen. (not exactly, because Iowa is complicated and the delegates elected at the precinct caucuses go to a county convention where they choose the delegates to the state convention where they choose the delegates to the national convention, but still, we have indications) Of those, Romney has 20, Santorum 12, Paul 3 and Huntsman 2. Four out of the 6 people still in the running have delegates. Gingrich and Perry may well pick up a few as the race moves south. Southerners vote for Southerners. Perhaps it’s local pride. Perhaps it’s just that they feel comfortable with someone who has the same accent. Perhaps it’s because they are stupid.
In any event, if Romney can’t get over 50% in any state (which is likely, since he couldn’t top 40% in New Hampshire), and nobody drops out and leaves him their delegates, then he goes to the convention without the required 1144 votes, and then we will see some desperate politicking, you betcha.
Romney might try to buy off Gingrich or Santorum with the vice-presidency. Paul might try to make alliances, too, although he’s not generally very good at it.
We could get one of those really interesting conventions, which last for days and lead to massive verbal abuse and occasionally physical violence. That would be fun to watch.
*anybody but Romney
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