The Iowa precinct caucuses draw close. These are a bit more significant than the Ames Straw Poll, which Michele Bachmann won handily several months ago, by buying the most votes, which is literally* the way a straw poll works.
He's Crazy, but it's a Different Kind of Crazy
I saw one article saying that if Romney wins in Iowa, and then in New Hampshire, he’s pretty much got the nomination sewed up, which is just plain not true, but newspapers like Mitt Romney. Professional Republicans like Romney, too. They have been endorsing him in droves. Even Nikki Haley endorsed him, and she probably hates him, because she’s part of that whole TEA group, but once a person’s in office, they want to stay there and forget about all those policy differences and stuff. He’s also spent some money on ads in Iowa, like more than some of the other candidates can afford, (so the TV stations love him all the more) and it seems like the crowds at his rallies have been larger lately, but you can give that image with a tighter focus on the shot and a few choice words in the caption. He’s also done well in a couple of polls, so a lot of pundits are predicting he will win Iowa.
I doubt it. What this last-second rally comes down to is that the Republican establishment has decided it’s time to get serious and Romney himself has decided he’d better spend some cash and get a victory under his belt, or at least an unembarrassing 2nd place, or he could be in trouble.
So, the exposure that money can buy will get you a boost in the polls. You don’t have to be Nate Silver to figure that one out.
But I don’t think it will carry him through the caucuses. Caucuses are not like primaries. People have to show up, talk to people, argue it out, and vote publicly. Basically, 3 groups of people will show up at the primaries. Which of them show up in the greatest numbers, that is the question. The arguments at the caucuses might move people from one candidate or another within a group, but very few are going to change groups.
1st, The Ron Paul people. They are fanatics, they are organized, 100% of them will show up. If there is a massive blizzard, or if a lot of other people just say “fuck it” the gold standard gang will win in a landslide. I’m predicting they’ll win in any event.
2nd The Teabaggers and Evangelicals. Here’s where the debate will be. They have to choose between Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich and (google his name) Santorum.
3rd The professional pols and regular old Republicans. Who are we kidding? They are such a minority within the Republican party they haven’t got a chance. Even if the weather is perfect and Romney’s GOTV operation works perfectly, they’re screwed.
Why? Paul’s voters are young and crazy. The teabaggers and evangelicals are high on God, or something-in any event, they are tireless. The debate will go on until about 11:30 p.m., the Romney delegates will go home and go to bed and the Paulites and the teabangelicals won’t apportion the delegates until 2 or 3 in the morning.
*not literally
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