Egyptian Deadline: Friday

Mohammed El Baradei, who seems to have appointed himself as head of the Egyptian Revolution, Egypt’s Lech Walesa and Vaclav Havel all rolled into one (and may well get away with it since nobody else really wants the role) has told Hosni Mubarak that he must leave Egypt by Friday.  “I’m giving you 48 hours to get out of town,” is what it boils down to, if ynet News is to be trusted.  I don’t know, they look like a very official type news site, although I’d never heard of them before and know nothing about them (I think they’re Israeli – that’s not a pro or con, just an observation).

There’s a problem with that kind of ultimatum, though.  What if he doesn’t?  As massive as the protests have been (2 million in Tahrir Square today, police stations burned all across the country, yadda yadda yadda), the protesters do not have an army.  So, for the moment they are still on the outside looking in and Mubarak could call their bluff.

Is He Egypt's Savior or Just Another Politician who sees an Opportunity?

The army has pledged that they won’t fire on civilians and I really hope that’s true, but what if they are lying and sometime between now and Friday there is another Tien An Men style incident?  If the army decides to cut loose and the protester death toll goes up from a hundred or so to a few thousand, Mubarak will get a bit of bad publicity, but that’s it.  Obama can’t force him to resign and it’s not his style to even try.

I remember thinking the Iranian regime was on the verge of collapse as well, after a week or so of people on rooftops shouting Allah Akbar, but once the mullahs cracked down, the revolt fizzled.

So, I’m hoping for the best (which I would define as Mubarak leaving the country, perhaps to a comfortable mansion in Scottsdale, Arizona, because that would seriously fuck with people’s minds, and el Baradei taking over and not being a crook, even though there’s no guarantee of that, either) but, as they say in Czech, I am holding my thumbs.

(in related news, Jordan’s King Abdullah II has fired his Prime Minister, apparently trying to get ahead of this angry crowd thing)