Is Sub-Saharan Africa Next?

Of course, everybody knows what’s happening in Libya and, to a certain extent, throughout the Arab world.  But do you know anything about Laurent Gbagbo and the Ivory Coast?

Laurent Gbagbo - The Next Gaddafi?

Probably not.  But they had an election last year, Gbagbo (the incumbent) lost, and he is refusing to step down.  There were demonstrations in the streets, followed by a government crackdown, and hundreds of people have died.  A couple of days ago, President Obama weighed in on the issue.  “Last year’s election was free and fair, and President Alassane Ouattara is the democratically elected leader of the nation,” he said.

Now, it’s understandable if you haven’t heard about this.  It has kind of taken a back seat to developments in Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and so on.  There are only so many reporters, only so many TV minutes in the day, and it’s much more important, apparently, to hear the same thing over and over again than to branch out and hear something different.

Anyway, Obama’s statement is in keeping with the pattern.  When there is total chaos in a country and it is apparent all the people hate their leader, he makes a statement supporting the opposition and hopes it gives them enough impetus to actually take power.  In Egypt it was enough.  In Libya, it wasn’t quite enough but he managed to convince NATO to step in with a few planes and it looks like that might work.

Anyway, if the anti-Gbagbo forces in the Ivory Coast (or Cote d’Ivoire, if you want to be all correct namey about it) are successful, the revolution that began in Tunisia may spread in a new direction – straight south.

4 Comments

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4 responses to “Is Sub-Saharan Africa Next?

  1. A's avatar A

    Ok, this conveys what I said in a previous post: where are the “no fly zones” for the Ivory Coast? Where are the cruise missile attacks against this guy’s mansions? Why do we, or the UN, care about Libya but not-so-much for IC? It’s not very hard: police all or none. Or at least convincingly explain why one is not worth the bother.

  2. Because every case is different. Also, every case is on a different time line. You can’t expect the no-fly zone to happen simultaneously with the mild statement of condemnation.
    All or nothing, now or never, one size fits all is not only bad policy, it’s not a very sensible way to go through life.

  3. A's avatar A

    Undoubtedly – except for Siths. 🙂 However, consistency in handling these cases would lend more weight to the idea that America is not in it “just for the oil.” Otherwise, it totally appears that we’re using our muscle for ulterior motives, such as the benefit of big conglomerates. It wouldn’t be the first time; I refer you to Smedly Butler, who knew he was little more than a government thug for “big business”.

    Just a thought, but how would America handle a full-scale slaughter of the locals by Russian or Chinese authorities? Serious question.

    • Devil's Advocate's avatar Devil's Advocate

      A asks this great question, ” Just a thought, but how would America handle a full-scale slaughter of the locals by Russian or Chinese authorities? Serious question.” The obvious answer is…..it depends….because as Guru observed, “every case is different.” America would need to do an analysis, as they have always done in these types of situations, and determine if they have the means to mount an effective solution – or not. They would almost certainly want to charge in on moral grounds but the moral ground must be weighed carefully with the realities.

      One might argue that China is already slaughtering their own as the Chinese have this tendency to disappear when they’ve displeased the authorities. Sometimes they reappear, sometimes they don’t.
      Unfortunately (or fortunately) China seems to be well down the road toward a major confrontation with their masses so we may learn the answer to your question in our life times 😦

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