I’m not claiming to be an expert on the tangled tapestry of Middle Eastern politics, but nobody is. The Israeli government can’t predict which country will have a revolution next and whether or not it will be successful, the Mossad can’t predict where the next bomb will go off. The folks at
Syria
the CIA are just plain guessing. Their guesses as to the region’s future are no better than those of John Q. Public, and generally a lot more dangerous. We are still paying today for what we did to Mossadegh in 1953. Remember that seen in the sequel to that Ben Stiller-Robert de Niro thing where the father of the bride is a CIA nutcase and the father of the groom, Dustin Hoffman, says to him that he can’t name one thing the CIA ever got right and DeNiro just couldn’t say shit because there hasn’t been anything? That’s the kind of Middle Eastern experts they are. Gaddafi thought he had it figured out, but his opinion doesn’t count for so much any more, on account of being dead.
So, nobody really knows what the hell is going on over there for sure.
But it’s clear that Barack Obama, and whatever cabal of Prime Ministers, generals, admirals and Illuminatti actually forms the power structure of NATO, see some pretty sharp differences between Libya and Syria. Because by this time into the Libyan conflict, it was over.
Maybe it has to do with geography. Libya’s a desert country, pretty easy to control from the air. Syria, like Afghanistan, is mountainous. Well, maybe not exactly like Afghanistan. Maybe a bit more like Pennsylvania or something. It’s not the Himalayas, but it’s rocky, up and down country. Maybe it’s the greater variety of ethnicities and religions in Syria which have made the powers that be pause. Maybe it’s the fact that it’s more crowded, there would be more urban fighting and, therefore, higher casualties. Maybe it’s just too close to Iraq for comfort. Maybe it’s because there’s an American election coming up. Maybe it’s because Russian and Chinese support for Assad is greater than we thought. Maybe because once in, it would be hard to get out.
Whatever the reason, it looks like the big boys in the Penthouse Suite have made their choice. I wish the people of Syria luck, because they sure aren’t going to get anything but nice words out of the U.S.
www.gurukalehuru.com 
Rereading this the next day and I realize I missed the point entirely. It’s the oil…or lack of it.
Yep. Oil. Funny how you missed that 😉 Not that Syria wasn’t part of the plan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXS3vW47mOE
Certainly oil is a factor – Iranian oil that is. As of January 2012, Iran was exporting 22% of its oil to China so China HAS to be concerned about the ramifications of angering Iran’s most important ally. Meanwhile, standing with Beijing regarding Iran/Syria plays a dual role of securing Russia’s goal of balancing the influence of the United States in the Middle East and securing channels for access to China’s resources. At the end of the day, the votes were based on national interests, and that’s fair. It’s not the Obama way to operate unilaterally (a good thing) so Assad has dodged fate for another day. But realistically his days are numbered. The U.S., Turkey, Saudia Arabia, et.al. will almost certainly forge an alliance to address the situation and I’m fairly certain Beijing will eventually give tacit approval. Russia will be in a stew and Assad will fall.
It’s good that international wheels turn a bit slowly as it reduces major screwups but no doubt – that slow pace will be tragic for the Syrians in the near term.