What to Expect

I’m not too confident that the cease-fire between Ukraine and the Russian backed Eastern Ukrainian separatists will hold.  Most cease fires don’t.  Like young romances or start up businesses,  they are hopeful  things, but most of them fail, many of them almost immediately.  Still, we keep trying because we must.  And I’m holding my thumbs, as they say here in the Czech Republic.

It seems to me that, despite 5,000 deaths so far, none of the sides involved (I count 4, there could be more,but it’s definitely not just two) want peace as much as they want an advantage.  When I say four sides, I am counting Ukraine, the Russian speaking separatists in the East, Russia (which is definitely involved,   Putin’s in this right up to his beady, little eyes), and “the West,” i.e. Europe, NATO, and the CIA.

It also seems to me (although I should admit at this point that I am not an expert on the region so I’m just spitballing) that the end result is inevitable.  Although it’s not clear exactly where the lines will be drawn, some sort of partition has got to happen.  So, why not just fast forward to that point, negotiate it out, with provisions that any loyalists can get out to the West and any Russian speakers in the West can go to the East – in fact, keep a friendly border so people can go back and forth as they like – and let there be peace.



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