Iowa Eve

It’s after midnight and I need to get to bed now, so I won’t see any of the results from the Iowa precinct caucuses until the morning, but I’ve got a pretty good feeling about them. To manage my own expectations: I’ll be disappointed if Bernie gets less than 30%, I’ll be stunned and horrified if he actually doesn’t win, and contrariwise I’ll be ecstatic if he gets over 50%, a clear majority, topping everyone else combined, and I think that’s a definite possibility.
Why do I think he can do so much better than the polls?
1. I think the polls are lying
2. He got 50% in 2016, and most of those people are still with him
3. The big rally in Cedar Rapids a couple of nights ago. Bernie filled an arena, there were 3,000 people there to see him speak. That’s a bit short of the 20-30,000 he can draw in L.A. or New York, but it’s not bad for Iowa. Also, on the same night Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg also had rallies. None of them had over 500. If all of those 3,000 people show up to caucus (and there’s no reason why they wouldn’t) we will simply overwhelm the opposition.
4. Early reports look good. I’d never heard of these ‘satellite’ caucuses before and I’m still not sure they’re a good idea, but they definitely seem to be breaking Bernie’s way. At 2 locations, he got 100% of the delegates.
5. The opposition has already started damage control. “Most (Biden aides) feel it’s not going to be great,” one Biden insider admitted. You’d think they wouldn’t admit to such pessimism before the night has even begun, but there’s a real possibility they could fail to break 15%, and then they’re going to look ridiculous.
So, we will see. Whatever the results we will talk about them tomorrow for a bit but then the focus will shift, almost immediately, to New Hampshire. And then, for the next 4 years, nobody will pay attention to Iowa again.

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