Sometimes you read an opinion piece that is just so incredibly lame that it convinces you of the opposite, and I read one a couple of hours ago. I’m not going to try and find it just so I can link to it, but the argument was that Hillary has got the Democratic nomination all locked up.
The author based this on two things. First, that Elizabeth Warren is not running. Second, that she’s got the support of a lot of the party’s inner circle.
I’ll take those one at a time. Elizabeth Warren is not running, which is a disappointment but nothing new. She never said she was running. So, that hasn’t changed the odds from whatever they were last week. Also, just because Elizabeth Warren is not running doesn’t mean that there aren’t plenty of Democrats who will run. I’m not going to get into the name game too much, but anybody who is a Senator, Representative or Governor has enough credibility they could jump in, and that’s about 250 Democrats, at a quick and dirty estimate. Add in all former Senator’s, Representatives and Governors, and you’ve got a pondful of very big frogs. Not all of them have great name recognition or easy access to huge amounts of money, but none of them have Hillary’s baggage.
Name recognition is not really a necessity. Whoever opposes her (and as soon as there is one, there will be 5 or 6) has a natural advantage, because their big sales point will be simply that they are not Hillary.
Then, the author said that big names in the Democratic party are flocking to her campaign. As an example, he cited John Podesta. Who? If she got an endorsement from Joe Biden or Al Gore, or even Barack Obama, I might start to change my tune. That hasn’t happened yet.