22

There are now 22 Democratic candidates for governor.  This is generally viewed, in Bernie circles, as a strategy on the part of the DNC to make sure Bernie does not get 51% of the delegates on the first ballot, which will mean that the superdelegates kick in and the DNC can then nominate any piece of shit corporate tool they want, probably Biden or Harris.  Maybe Warren.
I suspect that’s at least partly true.  Also, though, each of these 22 candidates has their own agenda and even the most pragmatic among may secretly harbor a fantasy that they’re actually going to be the next president of the United States.  Even Marianne Williamson.  It’s possible that, with no pre-ordained candidate like Hillary Clinton, everybody is rushing in, like planets being sucked into a black hole.
But, for the purpose of tonight’s blog, I’m going with theory #1.  They’re trying to keep Bernie below 51%  I don’t think it will work.  First, there will be the debates.  Sure, 22 candidates will mean each one gets less time to speak, but Bernie’s message is already out there.  Then, there are the questions.  Whether they ask about an increase in the minimum wage, or the Green New Deal, or free college, or ending private prisons, or taxing the rich, or legalizing marijuana, every candidate is going to be evaluated on how close they are to Bernie’s positions, and if they’re not close enough, they’re going to lose votes.  So, the debates are going to be an endorsement of Bernie.  The policies he’s been talking about forever are now what America is talking about.
I’m just guessing, but my prediction is that after the debates, the number of candidates will be significantly fewer.  If candidate like Steve Bullock, John Delaney and Julian Castro haven’t gained any traction by that point, they’re probably going to drop out.
Unfortunately, much as I love her, I imagine Tulsi Gabbard will be out by that time, too.  She is essentially a younger version of Sanders, with an even more progressive foreign policy platform, but her campaign has been drowned by the Sanders wave.
I imagine there will still be about a dozen by the time of the Iowa precinct caucuses.  That’s a crucial test, and anybody who comes out of Iowa with only 1 or 2 per cent of the delegates is likely to drop out.  So, we’ll be down to 5 or 6 and the race will be on.
I do think Sanders will go into the convention with over 51% of the delegates.  That’s my prediction.