Amateur, Second Hand Debate Analysis

Well, there is the time differential and, besides, I went to a poetry reading last night and was well and truly whacked by the time I got home. Usually when we step out for a break, there are two or three joints circulating among five or six people smoking, and then everybody goes back inside to read a bit more, but last night there were three, sometimes 4 joints at a time going around the circle and it seemed like every time somebody left the circle and went back inside, somebody showed up with a fresh joint.
So, no, I didn’t actually see the debates. Of course, all my Bernie groups are saying he nailed it, I’ve seen a few other analyses which said it was over all pretty meh, and it looks like there were no knockout punches (which is what happens when Tulsi is not there), which is a shame.
But, I think the significant takeaway was the winnowing. There were only 7 candidates on the stage and, while I like Tulsi, the idea of fewer candidates is a very good sign for Bernie. If he can knock three or four more of the candidates out before, say, Super Tuesday, then he’s very likely to get over 51% of the delegates on the first ballot in July, and be the next president of the United States.
And out of the 6 other candidates on that stage, there are 5 who don’t worry me.
Joe Biden fails to inspire every time he opens his mouth, and quite frequent he actually offends, or embarrasses people. I’m not too worried about him.
Pete Buttigieg kind of screwed the pooch with his wine tasting in the crystal basement. Not as bad as he screwed the pooch with his South Carolina endorsement list, but people at the debate talked about the crystals. It’s kind of what looks bad ( a huge crystal chandelier – not by itself automatically evil) and what actually is bad (the fact that he was trying to get PAC money). Still, he’s floundering and I couldn’t be happier.
Amy Klobuchar managed to speak without trembling and all the pundits said she had a great night. I guess I’m happy for her. Anyway, she is so far back I’m not worried about her too much.
Andrew Yang is a one trick pony with zero political experience. He is not only way back in the pack, he’s not likely to expand beyond his base, which is young IT nerds who think $12,000 is a lot of money. Not worried about him.
Tom Steyer is just another billionaire. I don’t take his candidacy any more seriously than Bloomberg’s. Not worried.
The only one I really think has a chance of fucking up Bernie’s nomination is Liz Warren, and that’s because she’s got a lot of people convinced that she’s just like Bernie, and lots of people (even a lot of men) would like to have a female president.
But, the quicker the field thins out, the more focus there will be on everybody’s actual record, and there’s only one candidate who benefits from that: Bernie Sanders.

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