Thoughts on Fermi and Drake

I read an article a week or so ago which got me thinking, and I don’t recall where I read it and I’m too lazy to look it up, but the idea was that and developed, global society, certainly any society capable of space travel, would have to reach a point where we’re at now, where their industry was totally destroying their environment.
Now, the most pessimistic view is that technological civilizations automatically self-destruct, and that would resolve the Fermi Paradox (which is no more a real paradox than the Drake equation is an equation), but it’s all a bit too gloom and doomish for a glass half full type of guy like myself, so I prefer to look at it like this.
Assuming there are a billion billion stars in our galaxy (and it’s probably not less), that is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars, and if one out of a thousand of those stars has a planet like ours, in the Goldilocks zone, with an oxygen atmosphere, plenty of water, and a bit of dry ground to walk around on, that would be 1,000,000,000,000,000 Earth like planets, and if life, sweet, single-celled autotrophic life, evolved on one out of a thousand of those planets, that’s still a trillion planets, (or 1,000,000,000,000) and if intelligent life evolved on one out of a thousand of those planets (because, admittedly, we got very lucky with the comet that killed all the dinosaurs), that would still mean a billion planets with civilizations like ours, and hundreds of billions of dinosaur worlds, which would make for super cool galactic colonialism.
Out of that billion, I cannot believe that ALL would self-destruct because, just as it is possible for a species to be stupider than ours, it is clearly obvious that it’s possible for a species to be smarter than ours (because we can be godawful stupid at times), and if even one out of a thousand of those planets survive their globally self-induced climate crisis and go on to colonize space, that’s still a million civilizations.
I think these can fairly be categorized as conservative estimates, but it still means a lot of alien civilizations out there we could communicate and do trade with (and maybe some we had damn well better not, too)
Will we be intelligent enough to survive long enough to meet them? We can be. If we want to.

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