Trump’s Chances

A facebook friend posted today that he was amused by the Trump candidacy, that as long as he’s in, that’s damage to the Republican party and if he actually gets the nomination, the Democrats will win in a landslide, similar to 1964 whentrump Goldwater had the slogan “In your heart, you know he’s right” and all of us kids in Mrs. Lynn’s 6th grade class were saying “In your guts, you know he’s nuts” and that seemed to be the national consensus as well, although LBJ didn’t turn out to be such a peach, either.

I wish I could agree.  However, there are a few reasons why I think we should be concerned about the very real possibility of a Trump presidency.

1.  Americans elected George Bush twice, and anybody who claims they didn’t know he was retarded before the election in 2000 just wasn’t paying attention.  But, there is no requirement that voters pay attention.  There is no requirement that voters make a conscientious effort to choose the most intelligent candidate, or the most honest one or the most compassionate or anything, really.  Voters can vote according to any damn fool criteria they choose, and most of them do.  Come election day, plenty of people will vote for Trump because “He doesn’t take any crap” or “He says what he thinks” or “His wife is hot,” or “At least he’s not a liberal.”

2.  If he gets the Republican nomination, the chance of his getting the Presidency jumps up to almost 50/50, because that’s the way the  game works.

3.  The chance of his getting the Republican nomination is very real.  He is currently leading in all the polls, and that is rank and file support.  The  party leadership hates him.  This makes him the Republican Bernie Sanders, and I think Sanders is going to take the Dem nomination.  The party bosses have some influence, but if they were actually in control, Trump and Sanders would be out already, and they’re not.

They might actually try to keep Trump out of the debates – I’m not sure who determines who gets into the debates, whether it’s the party leadership, Fox News, or Republican megadonors Charles and William Koch – but that could backfire on them, because if they try to keep him out, they would have to actually give a reason, and they don’t have one.

So, I’m very worried about the possibility of a Trump Presidency.  I think we all should be.


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