Election Prediction

While the future is full of surprises, and I’m not much better at predicting it than anybody else, there are, in broad terms, three ways the upcoming presidential campaign could go after July.
In scenario 1, the scenario I like, it will be Trump against Sanders. I like our chances pretty well, but the point I want to make with tonight’s blog is that it will be a great election, an uplifting and exciting election, an election we can be proud of.
It will pit a smart candidate against a stupid candidate.
It will pit a working class candidate against a billionaire who was born into extreme wealth and has nothing but contempt for the poor.
It will pit a man with a comprehensive plan to save the planet against a global warming denier, someone who accepts the reality of science vs. one who doesn’t understand science and doesn’t give a shit.
Although the two men are only two years apart in age, it will pit a fit, vigorous candidate against a fat old man whose favorite sport is riding in a golf cart.
It will pit a decent human being against an absolute pig.

I’m sure we’ll be able to win it, but either way, we’ll feel good about the race.

If the DNC decides to screw Bernie and pick one of the other candidates, it will not be a fun campaign. If it’s Biden, we’ll have to listen to him speaking for 4 months, and he is not a good speaker. It will occasionally make headlines when he calls somebody a lying, dog-faced pony soldier, or starts talking about the hair on his legs, and it will be an embarrassing election for all involved. Many people will stay home, not wanting anything to do with it.
If it’s Warren, we’re going to hear a lot of “Pocahontas, Pocahontas” which shouldn’t be a big deal except it kind of is. It reminds everybody about how she lied about getting fired for being pregnant and lied about none of her kids going to private school, too. Not big lies. But, lies.
If it’s Pete, the one thing that Democrats haven’t discussed will become the central issue of the debate. I know, I was as surprised as anybody that a black man won the presidency, and maybe a gay man can do it, too, but not Pete Buttigieg. Gay people aren’t even into him that much, and black people hate the fuck out of him. And he has no platform.
If it’s Bloomberg, it’s a disaster. The Democrats might as well just announce that they are no longer opposed to Republicans. It becomes a non-election, a choice between two racist, sexist billionaires who don’t care about the average person. Even if Bloomberg wins, America loses.
If it’s Klobuchar, it’s the battle of the bad hair. She hasn’t really distinguished herself on the debate stage, didn’t know the name of Mexico’s president, and her voice trembles when she’s nervous. Of the candidates who are not Bernie, she’s one of the maybe two who I could be persuaded to vote for, as I’ve seen little evidence that she’s actually a monster, but she doesn’t inspire anybody, either.
Scenario 3 is the DNC decides to screw Bernie, but to draft somebody who stayed out of the primaries altogether. No matter who that is, you can be sure it won’t be somebody who will offend the oil companies, or the insurance companies, or the banks, or the military-industrial complex.

And then, from July until November, all we’ll hear is “Nobody gets exactly the candidate they want” and “a shit sandwich is better than ground up razor blades” and “lesser of two evils” and “You must like Trump!” These are all terrible arguments, they did not work for Hillary Clinton, and they will not win this year. In scenario 3, Trump wins.