250,000. Is That a Lot?

Well, in almost any argument you wind up using numbers and/or percentages, and it kind of depends on what point you want to make. In the case of the effect of the Sturgis motorcycle rally, it sounds really scary to say that 250,000 cases of Covid 19 are attributable to the event.
But, is it? The event took place almost a month ago, and they say the incubation period is two weeks. So, in that 250,000, they are counting anybody who got infected by somebody who was at the rally. It’s fair enough to do that, but it introduces a lot of other variables. Are they sure people caught it from somebody at Sturgis, or maybe somewhere else? There were 375,000 attendees, roughly. The number of people they have had contact with over the past 3 weeks has to be in the double digit millions.
I heard last week about the first death from Sturgis, but I haven’t heard of any others since, and deaths count a lot more than number of cases. I’m guessing most of the people who were in attendance are still alive, and of that number most are probably saying ‘See. We’re still O.K.’ because that is human nature.
I’m going to continue wearing a mask wherever mandated by law, and maybe even a bit more than that, because I’m in my 60s, not in peak condition and, therefore, somewhat vulnerable and I don’t believe in taking unnecessary chances, but I don’t think Sturgis proved how dangerous it is. Maybe the opposite.

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